Week 9 · 2026
Welcome to another edition of a regular guy posing as an expert on NFL picks. I went 11-3 last week, you’ll excuse me if I let it get to my head.
Welcome to Week 9. As we reach the halfway point of the season, the teams are starting to define themselves, and it’s maybe a little easier to pick your spots. If you have fewer than 14 burns after this week, you’re on track to survive the season. But of course, we’re not just trying to survive. We’re trying to win.
And that’s why I guarantee that these picks may or may not help you do that.
LOOK! DEFENSELESS BABIES!
Full speed ahead. These are your best options if you haven’t already burned these teams.
1. Chiefs over Jets
A potential double-down opportunity presents itself, as the frustrated Chiefs come home after a heartbreaking loss in Denver. After having lost to the Dolphins and Raiders in consecutive home games, I get the feeling that “at Kansas City” isn’t the recipe for the Jets to start winning. I’m not sure there even is such a recipe.
2. 49ers over Raiders
Another situation where an elite team is coming home after an annoying away loss. Even better, the 49ers are coming off of the bye. Even better, the Raiders played out East last week. Even better, despite being a respectable 4-4, the Raiders’ best win might be over the…Saints? Not happening.
3. Seahawks over Cardinals
Arizona did it again last week, winning at Dallas after being left for dead. This team has defied the odds all season, and so I don’t feel good having this game ranked so high. But if I take a step back, if the Cardinals win this game, they and the Super Bowl Champs will both be 4-5. I just don’t see that as part of the script.
4. Bears over Buccaneers
How cute! The Bucs won last week without completing a pass! Uh huh. Let’s see how that strategy works against a Bears team who just put up 30+ against both New England and Seattle in consecutive weeks. Here’s a hint: it won’t.
WELL, THERE WE’RE IN KIND OF A GREY (CHARCOAL?) AREA
At least two of these road favorites win comfortably, but these games still bother me.
5. Jaguars over Ravens
With the Ravens now down their top two quarterbacks, it’s starting to look like it’s not their year. They’ve lost their last two by more than 20. But I’m still staying away from this one. Playing on the road on Thursday night is not a favorable situation, and that’s Jacksonville’s task this week. And I just don’t see the Ravens getting pasted by three touchdowns every week in perpetuity.
6. Rams over Commanders
The Rams are clearly better, but there are better options this week. I’m not fully trusting a western dome team coming east and playing outside at 1pm EST. I bet there is a cool stat about it that I could produce, but I don’t feel like looking it up.
7. Lions over Dolphins
Look at the Dolphins last 4 games. Lost by 5 at Minnesota. Lost by 7 to Cincinnati. Beat the Jets. Lost by 5 to New England. Are we sure they’re terrible? Yeah, probably. Do I want a little more evidence to be sure that I can pick against them with impunity? Yes.
8. Giants over Eagles
The NFC is pretty crazy. It’s possible that the 8 best teams are in the North and West and the 8 worst teams are in the East and South. You would have to pay me a good bit of money for me to attend this game in person. I take the Giants here, because I assume that the Eagles are in a free fall until they prove that they aren’t.
GODAWFUL MESS, YOU SHOULD SEE MY SHOES
If you pick this game, you are playing with fire. Get it? Fire? Burn?
9. Texans over Chargers
You can call me a coward for having SEVEN no-go games this week, but I can’t help it. That’s the schedule that Big Football has given us. Anyway, we thought that Houston was turning a corner after two straight wins. But no, they take a loss to the Giants on their home field and are seemingly back to square one. And do we really think that Jim Harbaugh is going to go 0-17 this year?
10. Cowboys over Colts
The Cowboys have lost home games to Tampa Bay and Arizona in the last month. Sure, the Colts have given up, but when has that mattered to Dallas in the past?
11. Saints over Browns
The Saints haven’t won at home yet this season. That oddly gives me confidence that they win this week, but I’m surely not spending a pick on it if I don’t have to.
12. Bengals over Falcons
The Falcons just lost to a team that didn’t complete a pass. Immediately, before that, however, they soundly defeated the 49ers. A month ago, they lost to the Panthers by 30 at home, and then went to Green Bay and dominated the Packers. I have no idea, and I don’t think that they do either.
13. Broncos over Panthers
The Broncos are coming off a massive comeback rivalry win. Now they travel to Carolina to play the Panthers who are coming off a mini-bye after two straight losses. There is a reason the line is 2.5. The potential for a letdown here is too high to ignore.
14. Patriots over Packers
Two pretty good teams. Possibly a very good football game. That is poison to an NFL Burn player who is looking for the right spot. Look elsewhere.
15. Bills over Vikings
These teams share the best record in the NFL along with the 49ers. And the one that seems to be better is on the road. If Green Bay / New England is poison, this game is hitting a water buffalo with your car. And like Fletch, you won’t be able to borrow her towel either.
We’ve reached the end. That was extremely sudden. Good luck in Week 9!