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NFL Burn picks strategy guide

Burn, Baby, Burn

Weekly thoughts about which teams to burn now, which to save for later, and which to leave alone.

Burn, Baby, Burn. Week 8 NFL Burn picks strategy guide.

Week 8 · 2026

Welcome to the inaugural edition of Burn, Baby, Burn. This is the work of an idiot who isn’t anywhere near the top of the standings, but who feels compelled to give you advice on how to play NFL Burn. I may not be good at it, but I spend an unhealthy amount of time thinking about it. Ergo, this feature will give you the insight that you need to make your picks this week and totally finish in the middle of the standings.

So now that I have you on the edge of your seat, let’s get started:

MEEP, MEEP!

Full speed ahead. These are your best options if you haven’t already burned these teams.

1. Bengals over Titans

Oh come on. This is your perfect double-down opportunity, taking both ends of this one for an easy 2 points. Cincinnati is rounding into form, at home, having just throttled the contending Ravens. I’ll walk home from Philadelphia like Jim Rooker if this one goes sideways.

2. Jaguars over Colts

Welcome home to the London…er…Jacksonville Jaguars. This has less to do with them and more to do with the fact that the Colts have basically thrown up the white flag for the season. The fire sale is on, and I’m totally not worried about the fact that huge underdogs have won 38% of games this season. Everything will work according to plan here.

3. Rams over Chargers

A lot of us can’t even pick these teams, thanks to the feisty Arizona Cardinals. But if available to you, it’s hard not to like the Rams here. They are still considered the best team in the NFL by several computer models despite their 3-4 record. This has a Brian Fantana “60% of the time, it works every time” feel to it.

YOU MIGHT, RABBIT

There are some sneaky-clever picks in this lot. I wonder which ones they are.

4. Cowboys over Cardinals

I know. You’re probably thinking I’m a coward for putting this on the second tier. But this is the Cardinals we’re talking about here! They beat the Rams on the road without scoring a touchdown! They can’t be trusted to win or lose. I’m not in charge of these things. That’s the 2026 NFL.

5. Patriots over Dolphins

I get it. A lot of people are going to pick this one. But am I the only one who has a bad feeling about it? I’m not touching it. There are a few inexplicable results every Sunday, and for some reason, I think this has all the signs of being one of them.

6. Steelers over Browns

You can call me a homer for this one. And yeah, you’re probably right. But here’s what I’m thinking for this one: there are worse teams to burn than either the Steelers or the Browns. In Burn, you want to preserve the very good teams for Win picks and the very bad teams for Loss picks. These teams are both so average that it would almost be a relief to not have to think about them anymore. So go ahead and pick it. Save your big guns for December.

7. Packers over Panthers

The Panthers were complete garbage last week, and it’s hard to see them winning at Lambeau without Jake Delhomme, but do we really trust Green Bay after Atlanta ran them off their own field a few weeks ago? And why has the line moved from 7 to 3.5 since the open? Something smells funny here.

8. Commanders over Eagles

The Eagles are obviously in a free fall with a decimated roster. But let’s not pretend that Washington is the kind of team that is sure to take advantage. Honestly, this probably ends in a tie so that fans of both teams can experience maximum disappointment for another week.

BE VEWY, VEWY QUIET

If you pick this game, you are playing with fire. Get it? Fire? Burn?

9. Bills over Ravens

My wife is a Bills fan. So I’ve come to learn that their games are exhausting. They win a lot, but when they play another good team, which I’m still trusting the Ravens to be, it’s always a “whoever has the ball last” kind of game. When that’s the case, there are better options than this.

10. Lions over Vikings

The prevailing sentiment is that the Vikings are overdue for their first loss. Ripe for the picking. That might be true. But I just don’t trust Detroit anymore.

11. Seahawks over Bears

Remember what I said about the Steelers and Browns? Go ahead and pick one because it’s not the end of the world if you lose one? This is the opposite. Why risk losing one of these two teams when all of the options above are available? Hard pass.

12. Jets over Raiders

Following the same concept, these are teams that you want to hang onto so that you can pick them to LOSE in the future. I get the feeling that CBS isn’t sending Jim Nantz to this one.

13. Falcons over Buccaneers

Either one of these teams will win by 50, or one of them steals it with a FG at the gun. Nobody knows.

14. Broncos over Chiefs

You guys. We just found the Jim Nantz game. Jim Nantz doesn’t call Bengals/Titans. They give that game to the 12-year-old whose voice you’ve never heard before, and you’re kinda wondering how long since he graduated from Syracuse. Nantz gets the big competitive games. And that’s a no-go zone for Burn if it can be helped.

Good luck in Week 8. That’s all, folks!

Previous editions

Read the latest edition · Week 9

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